Chapter 1190: The Price of Persuasion
The other Genoese nobles had naturally heard the rumors of an impending war sweeping across Europe, and their expressions grew somber at the news.
"So, those buying French bonds are doing it to hedge against the risks of war?" Baron Iccobelli asked.
If the Austrian army were to march into Italy, the local industry and agriculture would inevitably suffer. Investing in those sectors would mean facing staggering losses.
In contrast, French government bonds seemed far more secure.
Remarkably, not a single person raised the question of what would happen if France lost. Most people in Northern Italy had personally witnessed Napoleon leading his troops to sweep away the Austrian forces just a few years prior, and they harbored no doubts regarding the French military's combat prowess.
Nearby, Alfieri began his pitch for British government bonds once more, but Baron Todrick immediately cut him off with a cold remark. "Haven't you heard? The British government is printing pounds incessantly just to purchase sugar.
"Their paper currency can no longer be exchanged for gold. I’d wager that within a few years, the pound will be nothing more than wallpaper."
Although the others were not intimately familiar with the intricacies of British currency, Todrick spoke with such conviction that they couldn't help but believe him. At the very least, the fact that the pound could no longer be redeemed for gold was an indisputable truth.
Todrick recalled his standard script and continued, "Think about it. Why would the British government set their interest rates so high? It’s because the currency is devaluing so rapidly that no one wants to buy them."
Now, even Alfieri began to feel a nagging doubt. Should he dump the ten thousand pounds sterling in British bonds he had just acquired? The French government likely had enough confidence to keep their interest rates so low; perhaps it really was worth buying some of theirs instead.
A month later, the second batch of French government bonds, totaling twenty million francs, went on sale in Northern Italy.
To everyone's surprise, the interest rates for this batch were actually lower than the previous one!
The three-year rate dropped to 5.5%, while the five-year rate fell by 0.2%, leaving it at a mere 6.6%.
This was utterly contrary to normal expectations.
While many Italians were still hesitating, the banks acting as agents for the French bonds announced one after another that the entire batch had already sold out.
Among the major buyers this time were Princess Thérèse, who had married into the Parma royalty, and her husband, who purchased 2.8 million francs' worth. Madame Adelaide went even further, tapping into Modena's fiscal reserves and adding her own dowry to buy nearly 4 million francs in bonds.
Back at Countess Ranieri's salon, several Genoese nobles gathered to discuss the sensational French bonds.
"I heard even the Modenese royals bought a significant amount."
"Twenty million francs sold out in less than two weeks. What are these people thinking?"
"To be honest, I bought twenty thousand francs myself..."
"You made the right decision," Baron Todrick whispered, leaning in with a mysterious air. "Have you noticed the text on the back of the French bonds?"
The agent produced a bond with a face value of five thousand francs. "Look here. 'The French government shall be committed to ensuring all rights and interests of the creditors.'"
"What does that imply?"
"My friends in Paris have confirmed it," Todrick claimed. "If Northern Italy is invaded, the French government will, in the worst-case scenario, evacuate the major bondholders to France. That is how they ensure the creditors can actually collect their returns."
The others widened their eyes in shock. "Truly?!"
"It must be true," Todrick asserted. "Otherwise, why do you think all those high-ranking figures are scrambling to buy French bonds like madmen?
"The phrase doesn't appear on any bond with a face value of less than five thousand francs. In other words, during wartime, every five thousand francs guarantees one person's safety."
Everything clicked into place. The nobles immediately began calculating how many family members they would need to relocate in an emergency.
A few days later, a news report in the Milan Morning Post indirectly confirmed Todrick's claims. French Finance Minister Gaudin, in a public address, mentioned the issue of ensuring the safety of government bondholders.
By mid-April, the eagerly anticipated third batch of French bonds finally appeared on the Northern Italian market.
The total amount was thirty million francs, and the interest rates had dropped yet again. The three-year rate fell to 5.4%, and the five-year rate to 6.5%.
Following the previous hype, the purchasing enthusiasm of the Italian nobility was completely ignited.
The lobby of the Genoa branch of the Commercial Bank of Paris was so packed there was nowhere to stand. A queue of nearly a hundred people stretched out from the main doors, resembling a popular bakery during a sale, though these were mostly wealthy individuals with net worths exceeding tens of thousands.
In Genoa alone, three million francs' worth of bonds were sold in less than three days.
During this period, total sales across Northern Italy reached fourteen million francs. This time, there was no padding from Joseph's own pockets.
Meanwhile, within France, led by the nobility of Versailles, bond sales reached thirty-seven million francs.
...
Vienna.
In the gardens outside the Schönbrunn Palace, Minister of State Cobentzel furrowed his brow and spoke with suppressed rage. "Those foolish British politicians only know how to use our interests to curry favor with the Russians!
"They've even calculated Serbia into their schemes. I couldn't possibly propose such terms to His Imperial Majesty!"
His brother, Ludwig von Cobentzel, let out a weary sigh. "To some extent, Lord Hawkesbury's strategy is indeed more calculated.
"If the Russian Tsar is willing to join the Coalition, they can provide at least a hundred and twenty thousand troops. That would ensure that we face no challenges from the French army in Italy."
Walking on the other side, Minister of Finance Count Stadion added, "Actually, I am more concerned that a Franco-Russian marriage alliance might drive the Russians to the French side."
Cobentzel's expression darkened even further. He knew all too well what it would mean if the Russian army launched a surprise attack from the east while Austria was locked in a decisive battle with France in Italy.
"But we cannot be expected to bear the entire cost. At the very least, we must not abandon Serbia!"
According to the proposal put forward by the British Foreign Secretary that morning, Austria would need to tacitly accept Greek independence, allow Russian influence to enter Bulgaria and Serbia, and open the roads through southern Wallachia for Russian passage.
This was tantamount to handing over more than half of the Balkan Peninsula to Russia.
Vienna had long sought to merge Serbia into the Austrian fold and had invested heavily over the past few decades in cultivating Serbian forces to oppose the Ottomans.
More importantly, once Russia controlled Serbia, it was highly likely they would continue to extend their reach further west into Bosnia.
These nations, including Greece, shared the Eastern Orthodox faith and were naturally inclined toward Russia, the self-proclaimed Protector of Eastern Orthodoxy. It would be difficult for Austria to effectively prevent this.
The group fell silent for a moment. Then, walking slightly behind them, the Assistant to the Foreign Minister, Metternich, suddenly spoke up.
"Your Excellency, I believe that allowing Russia to control Serbia is not entirely unacceptable.
"We could even hand over parts of Wallachia to the Russians."
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