Chapter 777: Development of the Near East |
Without a doubt, after securing the support of the Austrian government, Grand Duke Vladimir Alexandrovich ascended to the Armenian throne.
As the news spread, the spectators across Europe jumped into action, engaging in their usual pastime. Scholars and experts emerged one after another, analyzing and debating the situation. However, before they could even reach a conclusion, the British government had already begun to panic.
What seemed like an insignificant struggle for the Armenian throne carried deep political implications that could not be ignored.
Armenia was situated between Russia, Austria, and Persia. Anyone familiar with Procopius’ military histories would recognize that Byzantium and Persia had fought over this region time and again.
If the Russian government sought to control Armenia, it was certainly not to counter Austria. The Russian-Austrian border was already long enough, with plenty of strategically advantageous locations for an attack, making it unnecessary to go to such lengths.
A small and isolated Armenia had no inherent value as such a tiny piece of land was hardly worth the Russian government’s attention. That meant their true target was self-evident.
…
British Foreign Secretary George said, “The Caucasus is too far for us. Our influence does not extend deep enough into the region, and we lack the capability to intervene in the Armenian succession.
The swift agreement between Russia and Austria on this issue is cause for concern. Beyond the Austrian threat, we must not ignore the Russian one either.
There was no alternative. This was a lingering problem from history.
More than a decade ago, the British had taken advantage of the Russo-Prussian War to support their local allies in seizing parts of Central Asia from the Russians.
The Russian Bear never forgets a grudge. No matter whether Alexander III was a pacifist or not, as long as he wanted to be seen by the public as a “good Tsar,” his next goal would inevitably be to reclaim Central Asia.
If Russia were to return to Central Asia and the Anglo-Russian conflict still failed to erupt, then Austria’s Foreign Ministry might as well shut down.
Facing the threat of two great powers simultaneously, Britain could not bear the pressure alone.
Whether in Persia or Central Asia, if either region were breached, India would inevitably become a battlefield.
Russia and Austria might not be able to wrest India from British hands, but a war-induced destabilization of India’s political situation was almost certain.
If Russia and Austria adopted a “if we can’t have it, then neither can you” mindset and fully backed Indian independence, it would be a complete disaster for Britain.
With the American Revolution as a precedent, the British government had no choice but to remain highly vigilant and prevent the worst-case scenario.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers was alarmed. “This is playing with fire! One misstep, and the whole situation could spiral out of control!”
Supporting France and Germany seemed like a viable strategy to contain Russia and Austria from behind, but the problem was whether France and Germany would actually cooperate.
All signs indicated that the French still harbored ambitions for expansion into Central Europe, and North Germany happened to be the obstacle standing in their way.
A lot has happened recently. Short-selling the franc, large-scale dumping, supporting revolutionary parties, and France’s withdrawal from the free trade system have all contributed to pushing Anglo-French relations to their lowest point since the Napoleonic Wars.
A few setbacks had not crushed the pride of the French. Instead, they had fueled the rise of French nationalism.
If any unexpected events occurred and an enemy took advantage of the situation to stir up discord, the British might not even need external threats. Their own allies could start fighting among themselves first.
If that happened, the British government would become a laughingstock.
Foreign Secretary George calmly analyzed the situation. “Sir, don’t get too worked up. The Franco-German conflict is not as deep as you imagine and has not reached the point of open hostilities.
As long as the interests at stake are great enough, even potential enemies can become temporary allies.
If we want to foster Franco-German cooperation, we must fully exploit the presence of Russia and Austria.
For example, we could use the lingering animosity from the Russo-Prussian wars to stir up anti-Russian sentiment in North Germany.
We could also provoke conflicts between France and Austria, whether in Italy, the Mediterranean, or over the Suez Canal.
It does not have to escalate into full-scale war. Simply exposing the underlying tensions and making them wary of each other would be enough.
Oh, and we could also use the Nordic Federation. During the Second Russo-PRussian War, the Russian government used the supposed sale of Finland as a cover to secure loans from the Nordic Federation.
If Austria had not provided guarantees, the Russian government would likely have defaulted long ago. The seeds of discord have already been sown.
All we need to do is…”
Whether using new grudges to overshadow old ones would work remained uncertain.
However, this idea was still worth considering. Britain’s long-standing foreign policy had resulted in a large number of enemies.
If past conflicts could not be suppressed, Britain would find itself at odds with the entire world.
Prime Minister Gladstone interrupted, “Sir, the Foreign Office’s plan is far too unrealistic.
I do not deny that both Russia and Austria pose a threat to us, but for now, that threat is only theoretical and will not materialize in the short term.
The international situation is ever-changing. An ally today may become an enemy tomorrow. Who can predict what the future holds?”
After a series of upheavals, Gladstone concluded that the best diplomatic policy for Britain remained “Splendid Isolation.”
Britain had already gained too much. What it needed now was to maintain control. By staying out of European conflicts and acting as an arbiter, Britain could continue maximizing its advantages.
A series of diplomatic missteps by the British government had essentially abandoned its strategic advantage as an island nation by directly involving itself in continental affairs.
Too much energy and money had been spent on addressing “potential” and “possible” threats.
The policy of maintaining the balance of power in Europe was not wrong, nor was the strategy of suppressing whichever nation became too strong. But when these two approaches were combined, problems arose.
Since the First Near East War, British foreign policy had fallen into this trap, continuously placing itself in opposition to the great powers of Europe.
After suppressing Russia, France rose again. When France was finally brought down, Austria emerged. Now, Britain was preparing to deal with Austria.
At first glance, the British Foreign Office seemed to have achieved brilliant victories, but in reality, none of these efforts had a lasting impact. The cycle of suppressing competitors seemed endless.
The root cause of this situation was Britain’s European balance of power policy.
To maintain this balance, the British government could not completely eliminate its enemies. It could not even cripple them.
If Britain struck too hard, it would have to step in and pull its enemy back up to prevent any single power from dominating the European continent.
Hatred would not disappear just because Britain offered a helping hand. The fact that conflicts had not erupted yet did not mean they never would.
The rulers of various nations were still human, and humans have weaknesses. Expecting them to always remain rational was unrealistic.
If one day, a hot-headed leader emerged and launched a war of revenge against Britain, all the careful diplomacy the British government had built would vanish overnight.
In an era driven by pragmatism, anything was possible as long as the benefits were great enough.
For example, if hostility toward Britain intensified, the rulers of Russia, France, and Austria might suddenly change their minds and decide to eliminate external threats before competing for dominance in Europe.
Or, realizing that none of them could defeat the others, the three powers might simply align with each other and turn their ambitions outward to seek new conquests elsewhere.
…
The British government had once again shifted its foreign policy, but Franz was unaware of this. He was still focused on the post-war recovery of the Near East.
As for Britain’s greatest fear—the alliance of Russia, France, and Austria—Franz had never taken it seriously.
Austria might have been willing to join forces with France and Russia against Britain, but the problem was that France and Russia were not interested.
Austria was at its peak, while France and Russia were still licking their wounds. If they allied now, there was no question about who would lead and who would follow.
Why would they accept a subordinate role when they had the potential to be the dominant power themselves?
An alliance would only be possible if Austria also declined in strength or if France and Russia recovered to the point where all three nations were on equal footing. Only then might they consider dividing Britain among themselves.
But if all three powers were equally strong, Franz would not dare to ally with them. Austria’s geographic position made it the “filling” in a sandwich, meaning it had to remain extremely vigilant.
Although Britain was a nuisance, its policy of maintaining the balance of power in Europe had actually been beneficial to Austria when its strength was insufficient.
In reality, as the world entered the modern era, diplomacy among nations had become increasingly pragmatic and opportunistic, with an excessive focus on short-term gains.
Britain bore a large share of the responsibility for this shift. Its insular position gave it the freedom to act without restraint, pursuing profit above all else.
France and Russia had tried to emulate Britain’s approach, but without the protection of the English Channel, their attempts had left them in a vulnerable and chaotic state.
Austria, on the other hand, had not followed Britain’s example, not because Franz had any particular moral integrity, but simply because Austria’s geography did not allow for it.
With the tragic example of the German Empire in the original timeline, Franz had no choice but to revise the Metternich era’s diplomatic policies, aiming to shape Austria into a great power that appeared harmless to all.
Chancellor Felix reported, “Your Majesty, this is the government’s Near East development plan, which is divided into three phases.
Currently, the government is implementing the first phase, which primarily consists of two components: immigrant resettlement and the construction of main transportation routes. These two aspects complement each other.
According to the plan, the government intends to complete the main railway line from Vienna to Baghdad within five years, along with two branch lines connecting the Middle East railway and the Arabian Peninsula loop railway.
Considering the unique characteristics of the Near East region, the upcoming resettlement efforts will be carried out along the railway lines.
A total of 145 stations have already been planned along the railway route, where immigrant towns or new cities will be established.
Large-scale immigration will begin in two years, initially focusing on coastal areas by directly transforming existing cities…”
Overall, the Austrian government’s planned Baghdad Railway was fundamentally similar to the one built by the Germans in the original timeline.
The key difference was that the Germans’ Baghdad Railway passed through Constantinople, whereas Austria’s route went via the Dardanelles.
The European section of the railway had long been completed. The remaining construction would begin at the Dardanelles Bridge and extend all the way to Baghdad.
As for the railways left behind by the Ottoman Empire along the route, they had to be dismantled and rebuilt due to differing track standards.
The connections between the Middle East Railway and the Arabian Peninsula Loop Railway were still just a concept, as both lines were still under construction.
The Middle East Railway had been under development for a longer time and was nearing completion. However, due to challenging geographical conditions, the Arabian Peninsula Loop Railway might not even be finished by the time the Baghdad Railway became operational.
Delays in immigration were inevitable. Although the Ottoman Empire had fallen, it would still take time to eliminate the remaining rebels who had entrenched themselves in the mountains.
Had the government not forcibly relocated the population of the peninsula, two years would not have been nearly enough to secure the region, perhaps not even five years would have sufficed.
Taking the project plan in hand, Franz examined the layout. Without computers, everything had to be drawn manually, so there was no point expecting beautifully rendered illustrations.
A few lines represented the railway, and as expected for such a significant project, the Baghdad Railway was designed as a double-track system.
The stations along the route were marked by small circles, though their exact locations had probably not yet been finalized.
Without satellite maps, engineers had to rely on manual surveying, so some degree of error was inevitable.
Skipping past the relatively neat planning diagrams and the well-known immigration plans, Franz’s gaze fell on the final section: the budget. His brow furrowed.
***
https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)