Chapter 763: Strategic Deception |
The establishment of the North German Empire triggered a wave of public debate across Europe and caused a sharp divide among German nationalists.
The optimists believed this was another step toward German unification. What was once a struggle among three major factions had now become a contest between two dominant powers, leaving only one final step before complete unification.
The pessimists, on the other hand, saw it as the beginning of a disaster. With Prussia and Hanover now merged into a stronger entity and European powers likely to intervene, unification seemed like an unattainable dream. It was like a flower in a mirror or a moon reflected in water, visible but forever out of reach.
To calm public anxiety, Franz personally sent a congratulatory telegram to George I and wrote an article titled “The Path to Unification.”
In this piece, he stated that the Prussian-Hanoverian merger was only a small step in the larger process of German unification. The next step, according to him, was for North Germany to return to the fold of the Holy Roman Empire.
The article also included generous praise for the British. Franz commended the British government for its role in facilitating the union between the two countries and encouraged them to continue their efforts.
Franz did not know how the British would interpret his words, but he saw that anti-British sentiment in the German states was rising rapidly.
As an unintended consequence, George I’s coronation ceremony became an awkward affair. Most European monarchs only sent representatives as a formality, while the rulers of the German states collectively boycotted the event.
Even King Frederick III of Prussia cited poor health as his reason for not attending. The only real attendees were George’s own relatives from the House of Gotha.
The European continent was still dominated by France, Russia, and Austria. No matter how powerful the British were, their strength was limited to the seas. Even with the newly established North German Empire, their influence on land was insignificant.
At such a sensitive time, any action could be subject to political interpretation.
Monarchs with strong political instincts naturally knew how to choose their positions. Besides, many were envious and resentful of the two crowns that George I now wore.
So far, most of Europe’s nobility had refused to recognize the legitimacy of George I’s imperial title. There was simply no legal foundation to support it.
Looking to history for justification?
Franz was the rightful heir to the Holy Roman Empire’s legal tradition. If Hanover wanted legitimacy from the Holy Roman Empire, it would first have to defeat Austria.
Claiming legitimacy through election?
The electoral system in the German states derived its authority from the Golden Bull of 1356. Hanover was not even an elector. Even if they somehow managed to secure a place, the law clearly stated that a candidate had to be crowned “King of the Germans” by the Pope before assuming the imperial title.
This was an even greater obstacle. Unless the Roman Catholic Church completely lost its mind, there was no way it would recognize a Protestant emperor.
In the original timeline, Prussia had taken power through military force without proper legal justification, which meant it was never fully accepted. Even Wilhelm I had to settle for an empty imperial title with little real authority.
George I’s crown was even less legitimate. It existed mostly for prestige, but in the official documents of most European states, it was not acknowledged at all.
No matter how illegitimate the imperial title was, an emperor was still an emperor. For status-conscious nobles, that alone was enough to provoke jealousy.
Franz’s interference had put the British government in an awkward position.
European media praised the British government for its strategic brilliance, claiming that the creation of the North German Empire was a masterstroke that achieved three objectives at once.
It sounded impressive and was seen as a great diplomatic victory. However, Britain had unintentionally offended too many parties, leaving itself diplomatically isolated.
An Anglo-French alliance was no longer possible. After being played like this, Napoleon IV would have to be out of his mind to ally with the British.
This experience made Napoleon IV completely understand why his father, despite being traditionally pro-British and anti-Austrian, had chosen to side with Austria rather than Britain.
Regardless of Britain’s intentions, the French government had already labeled them as untrustworthy and betrayers of allies.
Every time Prime Minister Gladstone saw newspapers boasting about Britain’s diplomatic brilliance, he felt a headache coming on.
Even if those reports were factually accurate, some things were better left unsaid. Now that the issue had been laid bare for all to see, how was France, Britain’s supposed future ally, supposed to react?
With each new article, it was like rubbing salt into an open wound. The more the media praised Britain’s diplomatic success, the more difficult it became for the French government to back down.
Gladstone said, “The North German Empire has been established, but the situation has somewhat slipped out of our control.
By blocking Austria’s efforts to unify the German region, we have been misinterpreted by the outside world. Both France and Russia now believe we are targeting them.
This has put us in an extremely awkward position internationally. If this issue is not resolved soon, we will once again find ourselves diplomatically isolated.”
Being isolated by the European powers was not a new experience for the British government. However, the current situation was quite different.
In the past, when Britain was isolated, it was by choice. At that time, they were focused on expanding their overseas colonies and had little interest in European affairs.
With the continent at peace, the British government preferred to stay out of unnecessary entanglements.
Now, the circumstances have changed significantly. The balance of power in Europe had been disrupted.
France, despite being at a disadvantage, remained trapped in its nostalgia for past glories, unable to adapt to reality.
Even worse, both France and Austria were major colonial powers, with extensive areas of conflict with Britain over overseas interests. Meanwhile, the Russian government was still fixated on Central Asia.
As Britain faced diplomatic isolation in Europe, there was also the looming threat of retaliation from all three powers.
Going up against France, Austria, and Russia at the same time would be a daunting challenge. Even the Royal Navy might struggle to handle the pressure, let alone the British Army.
Foreign Secretary George gave a wry smile and replied, “This was a failure on our part. We underestimated how sensitive France and Russia would be to the establishment of the North German Empire.
The Foreign Office will work quickly to repair relations with various countries, but this will take some time.
Aside from that, after everything that has happened, we have also realized that the contradictions between Austria and France or Russia are not as severe as we initially thought.
France, Austria, and Russia are indeed competitors vying for dominance over continental Europe, but being rivals does not necessarily mean they are on the verge of hostility.
The Russian Empire is still recovering and will not have the strength to compete for hegemony for a long time.
To safeguard its interests, the Russian government will likely follow Austria’s lead in diplomacy for the foreseeable future.
The Near East War was essentially a spoils-sharing event between Russia and Austria. The Austrian government used Ottoman territory to bind Russia to its side, making it extremely difficult to drive a wedge between the two.
France and Austria’s relationship is even more puzzling. Logically, both of France’s past emperors had an anti-Austrian stance, so relations between the two countries should be quite poor.
Yet, the reality is quite the opposite. Despite having serious conflicts of interest and a long history of hostility, the two nations have often appeared as allies.
Even during France’s recent internal turmoil, Austria did not take advantage of the situation. Instead, they launched the Near East War.
If the Austrian government had chosen to strike at France at that time, Italy would most likely have gained independence.
Although they missed a chance to weaken France, Austria did not suffer a loss. Their long-time enemy, the Ottoman Empire, is now on the verge of collapse, and relations between France and Austria have improved.
All signs suggest that Napoleon IV’s anti-Austrian stance is no longer as strong, and anti-Austrian sentiment within the French government has also weakened.
This is a dangerous signal. If French-Austrian relations continue to warm, the Austrian government might push for a France-Russia-Austria alliance, allowing them to collectively dominate the European continent.”
Is it really just about “dominating the European continent”?
A Franco-Russo-Austrian alliance would have an impact no weaker than the previous Anglo-French-Austrian alliance.
There are only two main reasons for forming an alliance: either shared interests or a common enemy.
The world has already been largely carved up. The remaining scraps are certainly not enough to satisfy the appetites of these three powers, so they would have no choice but to seize territory from a fourth party.
In this context, Britain, which gained the largest share of benefits during the colonial era, naturally becomes the primary target.
Beyond interests, Britain can also barely be considered the common enemy of these three powers. In a way, the friendly relations between France, Russia, and Austria exist only because of Britain.
Gladstone nodded, his expression growing solemn. “We must guard against this possibility. Russia and Austria are already closely aligned, and we absolutely cannot let Austria pull France to their side.
Our diplomatic strategy must undergo a comprehensive adjustment. It’s not that our previous diplomatic approach was wrong, but the international situation has changed, and many of our strategies have become outdated.
Maintaining the balance of power in Europe is not an issue, but our choice of adversaries has been. The idea of suppressing whichever power grows too strong has been effective, but it has also had serious consequences, directly worsening our relations with the major European powers.
This is how our relations with France and Russia deteriorated, and now the same is happening with Austria.
The Habsburgs are masters of diplomacy and hold significant prestige in Europe. They have always had more allies than enemies.
Since Franz took the throne, he has improved Franco-Austrian relations. Once the Ottoman Empire collapses, Austria will no longer have any mortal enemies on the continent.
When dealing with such an opponent, we must be extremely cautious. Above all, we must prevent them from forming an anti-British alliance.”
Suppressing competitors is not a problem, but the methods must be carefully considered. Any strategy aiming to achieve multiple objectives at once must first take into account whether it will provoke widespread resentment.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Hugh Childers remarked, “If we look at this from a different perspective, the situation is not as bad as it seems.
Austria is neither as warlike as Russia nor as militarily capable as France. Its strengths lie in internal governance and diplomacy.
The North German Empire has already been established, and its power is almost on par with the former Prussian-Polish Federation. As long as we remain vigilant against Austria attempting a peaceful takeover, unifying Germany by force is simply unrealistic.
Without German unification, Austria cannot establish an overwhelming advantage over France and Russia. Moreover, Austria is geographically caught between the two, which limits its strategic options.
To avoid becoming the common target of an alliance, the Austrian government will have no choice but to replicate the post-1815 Vienna System and rely on diplomacy to maintain a balance of power until it can establish absolute dominance.
As long as the European continent remains stable, even if Britain is sidelined, our core interests will remain unaffected.”
Comparison is everything. When contrasted with France and Russia, which flex their military power with guns and cannons, Austria, which relies on diplomacy, poses the least risk if it grows stronger.
Once again, reality proves that perception matters. The reactions of European nations make it clear that their wariness of France and Russia far exceeds their concerns about Austria.
The Austrian government is also staying true to its established image, securing influence on the European continent primarily through diplomacy while reserving military force for overseas endeavors.
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https://postimg.cc/gallery/PwXsBkC (Maps of the current territories of the countries in this novel made by ScH)