Chapter 311: New Tripartite Balance of Power Strategy |
Time flew and in the blink of an eye, it was 1860. The first major event of the year was the passing of Nicholas I.
If this happened in any other European country, it would be a minor issue — just a matter of changing emperors, and life would go on as usual.
Things were different in Tsarist Russia. A change of tsar also meant Russia’s foreign policy was about to change.
As a hegemon of the European continent, changes in the foreign policy of the Russian government would definitely affect the international situation. The Austrian government had to prepare countermeasures.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed: “According to the intelligence we have gathered, the character of Alexander II is not as tough as that of Nicholas I. He is more skilled at the art of compromise.
Alexander II’s political stance differs from that of Nicholas I. He advocates more thorough social reforms and opposes eager foreign expansion.
The Foreign Ministry judges that Alexander II may compromise with the British and stop supporting the Indian rebels in exchange for a compromise between Britain and Russia.
Without Russian support, the Indians cannot resist the British, and it won’t be long before this rebellion is suppressed.
In another two years at most, the British can withdraw from India. By then, it’s uncertain whether the British strategic focus will return to the European continent or initiate a new round of colonial expansion.
The French government has successfully persuaded countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland to withdraw troops from the Kingdom of Sardinia. According to the agreement, after apprehending the culprits, we also need to withdraw from the Kingdom of Sardinia.
As long as France and Russia come to an agreement and the Russian troops withdraw from the Kingdom of Sardinia, the British will be in a difficult position and the rest of the European countries will lack the confidence to oppose France.
It won’t be hard to convince the Russians. Alexander II wants to implement social reforms, but the biggest problem is a lack of funds. As long as the French are willing to provide a loan, the Russian government will sell out the Kingdom of Sardinia.”
Finance Minister Karl shook his head and said, “The British government won’t back down. While it was the previous governments that provided the loans to the Kingdom of Sardinia, it was the British government that ultimately guaranteed those loans.
The British Parliament cannot bear this debt, and capitalists are even less likely to abandon this loan, especially considering the massive interests behind it.
Currently, the Kingdom of Sardinia is their dumping ground for industrial and commercial products, with millions of pounds of export trade every year. They won’t let go of it that easily.
Once the French occupy the Kingdom of Sardinia, all their privileges will be lost, and the loans will turn into bad debts.
The British have already lost half of the market in the Kingdom of Sardinia, and they are almost at their limit.
Unless, of course, the French take advantage of the fact that the British are too busy to worry about the Kingdom of Sardinia and act decisively, creating a fait accompli by occupying the Kingdom of Sardinia.
Unfortunately, the French government does not have the determination to do so. They are afraid that a direct occupation of the Kingdom of Sardinia would arouse everyone’s suspicions or even create an anti-French coalition.”
This was an aftereffect of Napoleon, who left the French with a glorious era, but also put France in the spotlight. Every one of their actions on the European continent was being scrutinized with a magnifying glass.
Napoleon III could not accurately gauge the true positions of other countries, so he opted for stability. Nibbling away at the Kingdom of Sardinia may have seemed to allay the suspicions of other nations on the surface, but in reality, it didn’t make much of a difference.
Regardless of whether they annexed the Kingdom of Sardinia or not, other countries’ wariness of them would remain unchanged. The main reason for not taking action was still self-interest.
Without sufficient interests at stake and without a major power to take the lead, how could small countries stick their necks out?
Of course, this is only clear to bystanders. If Franz were in Napoleon III’s position, he would also choose stability, perhaps even more so.
The Italian region has never been easy to penetrate. Even if you expand on the European continent and push the borders to the banks of the Rhine River, there is more potential for development than in Italy.
By stabilizing their existing sphere of influence and concentrating on North Africa, with the national power of France, they could easily incorporate Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco completely into their territories.
Napoleon III had already recognized the importance of the African continent. After his accession, he accelerated the pace of expansion. Were it not for the Kingdom of Sardinia, which divided their attention, France would now have the largest colonial territory in Africa instead of Austria.
Prime Minister Felix presented a different opinion: “The French’s choice is not wrong. At the current rate of expansion, even if the British withdrew to Europe, the French could still consume half of the Kingdom of Sardinia.
The remaining territory, even if temporarily retained, will eventually become their prey. Eventually, the British will realize that holding onto the Kingdom of Sardinia is actually not worth the cost.
As for the losses they incur, they can easily make up for them elsewhere. As long as the balance among Russia, Austria, and France is not disrupted, the British will have achieved their European continental balance policy, and there’s no need to worry about the small Kingdom of Sardinia.
However, the French are ambitious. Once they occupy the Kingdom of Sardinia, they may also seek other areas in Italy, which will bring us considerable trouble.”
Foreign Minister Wessenberg dropped a bombshell: “Perhaps we can strike a major deal with the French and give them the Italian region!”
Everyone’s faces changed dramatically. France-Italy would be an absolute behemoth.
Finance Minister Karl objected: “No, giving up the whole of Italy could be exchanged for French acquiescence in our unification of Germany, but there are still the British and the Russians to consider.
The might of the Kingdom of Prussia is considerable as well. The German Empire, while barely unified, still possesses considerable power. It would be very difficult for us to achieve a quick and decisive victory.
Unless we can bring another player into the fold between Britain and Russia, one misstep and it could be France and Austria challenging the entire European continent, and we have little chance of success if that happens.”
The proposal is indeed very tempting, but the risks are simply too great.
Franz was not worried that a Franco-Austrian alliance challenging the European continent would fail. Russia was not at its peak at the moment, strong on the outside but weak on the inside. Without the Russian Bear as the main force, the chances were not that bad.
The problem is that this is just wishful thinking on their part. While the French people may be willing to make this deal, the unpredictable Napoleon III might not be.
In case they got cheated, the inevitable result would be a total loss of face, possibly even needing to vomit out a considerable amount of benefits, unless...
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Franz could not entertain the thought any longer and immediately put an end to the fantasy. The international situation was not under his control, Napoleon III’s ambitions had only just been ignited and were not yet ready to take that step.
“Classify today’s contents under the highest confidentiality. You can just bury it in your hearts. The international situation is constantly changing, and it’s not something we can control.
The unification of Germany remains our core strategic objective, but how and when we achieve it must be approached with caution. All ideas can be discussed, and what seems impossible today may have an opportunity tomorrow.
Right now, the most important thing is still development. Blindly disrupting the international situation does not serve our interests. Compared to other European countries, we have significant advantages.
In terms of population, territory, and resources, apart from Russia, no country on the European continent can compare with us.
The longer we wait, the stronger our advantages in comprehensive national strength become. Currently, the French are not far behind us in terms of strength, but in ten years, the gap between us will widen significantly.
By then, discussing this issue will likely be much easier. Napoleon III won’t stand by as we leave them behind. If they want to catch up, they’ll have to expand outward.”
Communication was inconvenient during this era, and Austria’s economic development data was not publicly available. Other countries had not yet noticed the advantages brought by population and territory.
However, secrecy could not be maintained indefinitely. With increasingly frequent exchanges, people would surely begin to notice Austria’s changes.
At that time, Napoleon III will definitely not be able to sit still. The French in this era, whose backbone has not yet been broken, will not tolerate being surpassed and gradually declining.
There were two options: either engage in a war to curb Austria’s development or expand outward to increase their strength.
This choice was easy to make, especially with the presence of the Russian Bear, which had more population, territory, and resources. They were all obstacles to France’s dominance on the continent.
It is clearly impossible to overpower them militarily. Military action does not seem to have any chance of winning, with the Russo-Austrian alliance still intact.
Even if Napoleon III does not want to expand externally, the frenzied nationalism will still force them onto the battlefield, whether externally or internally.
At that point, the French government’s options would be limited. Some sort of deal could probably be struck through enticement.
Finance Minister Karl reminded, "Your Majesty, the threat posed by the expansion of France is significant for us. By then, even if we have unified Germany, we will still be caught between France and Russia leaving us very passive strategically.”
Foreign Minister Wessenberg explained: “On the contrary, once the tripartite balance of power between Russia, France, and Austria dividing up continental Europe is formed, we will actually be very safe.
As long as the British do not abandon their policy of maintaining the balance of power in Europe, we do not have to worry about being isolated. The France that has annexed the Italian territories is not the current France.
Similarly, the Russian Empire that has annexed Northern Europe is not the Russia of today either.
With three massive empires standing side by side, stability is actually ensured. War would only erupt if one of these powers encounters internal issues that disrupt this balance.
As long as we make sure that we do not get into trouble first, the danger remains within manageable limits. Judging from the current situation, we are the most stable of the three countries.
Russia is still in the midst of reforms, and the outcome is uncertain. If the reforms fail, the Russian Empire might collapse someday in the future.
Napoleon III’s accession was questionable, and many within his country do not accept his rule. If he were to annex Italy, this crisis would only worsen.”
It has to be admitted that Wessenberg’s strategic vision is indeed quite good, just a little too radical.
However, this is not a major problem. It’s natural for the cabinet to have a mix of cautious and ambitious members, and Franz himself has ambitions too.
At only 35 years old, Wessenberg stands out from many competitors. In addition to Metternich’s strong recommendation, it’s his extraordinary strategic vision that sets him apart. This is also the most important prerequisite for serving as the Foreign Minister.
Prime Minister Felix asked, “Since annexing the Italian territories carries such huge risks, how can we ensure that Napoleon III will take the bait?”
Foreign Minister Wessenberg explained: “Prime Minister, Napoleon III had already taken the bait since he started annexing the Kingdom of Sardinia. In the Austro-Sardinian War, the capitalists and nobles who supported the Sardinian government suffered heavy losses, and the ruling foundation of the Sardinian government had long been shaken.
Furthermore, they have accumulated huge debts. Currently, the French primarily use political coercion, with military threats as a secondary measure. The influence of the Napoleon family in the Italian region is not weak, and many Italians take pride in Napoleon. I have reason to believe that the local power factions in Sardinia will join forces with the French. With their cooperation, French rule in the area could be quickly established.
However, the calm is only temporary. It is impossible for the French to win over everyone, they must still crack down on some of the people in power and cultivate their own cronies to take power.
These people will not accept failure. Due to the French military threat, they dare not act in the short term. All we need is temporary tranquility in Sardinia. This calm can create an illusion for Napoleon III that it is his destiny to rule over it.
We can also control some media to sing his praises and deepen his awareness. Once Napoleon III believed that the Italians would support his rule, his ambitions to annex the Italian region would be unstoppable.
However, Italian nationalism has already awakened. Once the French military presence decreases or withdraws, those who are unwilling to accept political defeat will surely emerge. For example, they may incite patriotic youth to resist French rule, support revolutionary parties, and so on.
Rebellions can also spread. If Italy becomes chaotic, France itself will not be stable internally. Without decades of cultivation and recuperation, France cannot digest the Italian region. If handled properly, the French Empire itself will collapse.
Of course, to achieve this, we need to further stimulate French ambitions. Only by allowing them to annex more land will they be stretched to their limits.”
Franz was delighted that the Austrian government finally had strategically-minded visionaries with ambition even if these operations were somewhat idealistic.
However, life itself is absurd to begin with. If one doesn’t even dare to dream, how can one possibly succeed?