Chapter 647: Italy's Gates Slowly Open
Count Rheinfels, as if guessing what the official had told Bailly, immediately lifted his head with a touch of arrogance:
"I am confident that the Italian states will support our nation's proposal."
The initial talks concluded in a tense atmosphere. Beyond exchanging hostile glares, the two sides failed to achieve any results.
Of course, such important negotiations couldn't be concluded in a single stroke; it was quite normal for discussions to drag on for a month or two.
Bailly left the Hall of Peace, skipping the ball hosted for the Austrian diplomats, and immediately rushed to report the situation to His Royal Highness, the Crown Prince.
Second floor of the Tuileries Palace.
Joseph's brow furrowed slightly as he listened to Bailly relay the Austrians' demands.
Franz II truly lived up to his historical reputation as the "prodigy" who personally dismantled the Holy Roman Empire; his coronation ceremony wasn't even over, yet he was already eager to stir up trouble like this.
It was an international treaty signed less than two years ago! Previously, Leopold II had only dared to "save the nation through indirect means" by involving Britain, but Franz II, on the other hand, brazenly demanded a renegotiation.
Had this happened during Louis XIV's reign, it would likely have led directly to war.
Bailly continued:
"Your Highness, the Austrians also stated that if we do not accept their terms, they will unite the Italian states to impose punitive tariffs on our nation. Furthermore, I just received news that a 30,000-strong Austrian army has just arrived in Tuscany, preparing for military exercises."
Joseph felt a smile tugging at his lips, thinking, 'The Austrians' learning ability is quite impressive. We just concluded military exercises, and they're already imitating us.'
He suddenly thought of something and looked at Bailly:
"Are you saying they intend to incite the Italian states to impose trade restrictions on us?"
"Your Highness, Austria wields considerable influence over Venice and Tuscany, and shares marital ties with Parma and the Two Sicilies. I fear they truly might persuade them to act against our nation..."
Joseph nodded with a slight smile. "Perhaps this isn't necessarily bad news."
For centuries, Italy had been a primary battleground for France and Austria, and France had long coveted it as its 'private garden.' When Emperor Napoleon conquered Italy, he reaped immense economic benefits from the region, covering almost half of his military expenditures.
He had previously struggled to find a pretext to intervene in Italy, as its political landscape had stabilized in recent decades. Now, someone was actively handing him one.
'Franz II certainly has his charming moments.'
Of course, the Italian market was also something they absolutely couldn't afford to lose.
Joseph pondered for a moment, then told Eman, "Please have General Berthier come to see me."
"Yes, Your Highness."
He then instructed Bailly, "Monsieur Bailly, you must try to delay the Austrian foreign minister for some time, at least half a month or so. We need to increase our presence on the Apennine Peninsula."
"Please leave it to me, Your Highness."
Joseph gave Bailly detailed instructions. Once the latter had received his orders and departed, Fouché arrived in a hurry.
After bowing, the Director of the Intelligence Bureau produced a report:
"Your Highness, Russia has been making unusual movements recently."
Joseph took the report and unfolded it, seeing at the very beginning: "The Russian Imperial Guard's 14th Infantry Regiment has been redeployed to an area east of Minsk."
Fouché continued, "According to the intelligence we've gathered, over 20,000 Russian troops have amassed near Ura. Additionally, there are 14,000 troops stationed near Kyiv in the south.
"At the same time, the Russians have begun constructing warehouses in both locations, and large quantities of supplies, such as grain and ammunition, are being transported there."
Joseph's gaze sharpened instantly.
Having studied at the military academy for over three years and personally participated in war, he was intimately familiar with the patterns of warfare in this era.
While mere troop movements could indicate a change of garrison or training exercises, the massive accumulation of logistical supplies was an undeniable prelude to war.
And the Minsk-Kyiv line could only be aimed at Poland. He had already done everything he could. Although the Russian army had begun to mobilize more than half a year later than historically, what was inevitable had finally arrived.
Given Poland's national strength, Russia would need to mobilize at least 100,000 troops to secure victory in a war.
Therefore, the Russian troop buildup must still be in its early stages. Poland absolutely had to make full use of this final window to prepare.
He looked at Fouché and asked, "If Russia intends to invade Poland, how long do you believe they will need to complete their war preparations?"
"That depends on the scale of the war the Tsarina intends to launch," Fouché replied. "If it's merely to seize the Minsk region, it would likely take another three to four months. For a full-scale invasion, at least six months would be required."
Joseph nodded, then inquired, "What is the state of war preparations in Warsaw?"
"Currently, Poland's standing army numbers 67,000 soldiers, with an additional 10,000-plus in local militias. Logistics, however, are quite well-managed, with enough weapons and ammunition for nine months and an even greater abundance of food."
Joseph exhaled. "They still need to accelerate their efforts."
He understood perfectly that Poland would face a pincer attack from Russia and Prussia. Prussia would deploy over 50,000 troops. Even with the advantage of defense, Poland wouldn't be able to hold out without 100,000 soldiers.
As the two spoke, Berthier entered, following Eman, after a knock at the door.
He bowed. "Your Highness, you wished to see me?"
Joseph gestured to a chair. "Please, sit. We'll first discuss military exercises in Italy, and then we may need to convene a General Staff meeting to deliberate on Poland's war strategy."
"Poland?" Berthier paused, surprised. "Have the Russians finally run out of patience?"
Fouché interjected, "It is said that Potemkin, even on his deathbed, was still busy with the allocation of supplies for Minsk."
Berthier nodded, then looked at Joseph. "Your Highness, what sort of exercises are you referring to?"
"Are you aware that Austria is currently conducting large-scale military exercises in Tuscany?"
"Yes, Your Highness, we just received word."
Joseph said, "We need to counterbalance Austria's deterrence in the Italian region."
"Then we shall hold even larger exercises in Sardinia or Modena."
Joseph suddenly recalled the campaigns in Silesia and shook his head. "There's no need to mobilize so many troops. Just a 'surprise' for the Austrian army will suffice.
"Hmm, we must have Count Segur travel to Modena as soon as possible."
...
A week later.
Central Italy.
Duchy of Modena.
Ercole III, the Duke of Modena, nervously watched the French Special Envoy and shook his head:
"Count Segur, I have heard about the trade dispute between your nation and Austria.
"However, Venice and Tuscany already announced their support for His Majesty Franz II's proposal the day before yesterday, and Parma and the Two Sicilies have also indicated they will seriously consider it.
"For your nation to conduct military exercises now might already be a bit too late..."
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