Chapter 1110: The Inflation Blow
"If you have the gold,
"Go and buy a gun,
"Barely costs two pounds,
"Or twelve shillings on the run,
"Else the Yeomanry Cavalry will take your head,
"For folks who only wanted sugar are now dead..."
The children sang the nursery rhyme happily, having no understanding of the grim meaning behind the words.
In a red-brick house on the outskirts of Dublin, the Irish capital, the great landowner Ian Patrick glanced at the frolicking children by the road and frowned at the butler beside him.
"Who taught them that rubbish? If the British police hear them, they'll likely get a lashing."
Patrick looked away and turned to the people seated around the table.
"Could this be a scam? After all, last year a bushel of wheat was less than four shillings."
Beside him, a withered old man pondered for a moment before speaking.
"It is indeed a possibility, but as long as those people are willing to pay a sufficient deposit, we won't suffer any loss."
"I agree," the only noblewoman in the room nodded in support. "Even if the foreign market changes later, the worst we'll do is keep the grain in the warehouse for a year.
"Besides, Mr. McCracken is willing to vouch for those people. I think it's worth a try."
A man with a face full of stubble sitting next to her said in a gruff voice, "I heard that to stabilize the situation in the Caribbean, the French send dozens of shiploads of grain there every month. They've even banned grain exports from North Africa because of it. It's not surprising the price is going up."
Just a few days ago, merchants from France, Italy, and other places had suddenly appeared at their estates, stating they wanted to purchase wheat in bulk at a price of five shillings and five pence per bushel.
Subsequently, the Society of United Irishmen also began to step in to help coordinate the procurement efforts.
Although the Irish region had a population of over three million, about two or three thousand great landowners controlled nearly seventy percent of the arable land. Almost all the grain in the region was produced by them—most other Irish people were merely "potato farmers."
Therefore, as long as the price expectations of these landowners could be influenced, the grain prices here could be significantly driven up.
Since Irish grain accounted for twenty percent of Britain's total production, the price increase would inevitably transmit to the entire British market.
One must understand that when one-fifth of the grain on the market rises by one shilling and five pence, the increase isn't averaged out across the entire market to a mere four-penny rise.
Other grain merchants would immediately follow suit, raising prices to the maximum until sales stalled, only then gradually lowering them. Ultimately, the price would likely stabilize at an increase of at least one shilling.
When Joseph learned that the pound sterling had been de-pegged from gold, he began contemplating how to strike at the British economy.
Britain's failed gamble in shorting sugar prices had led to a retaliatory rebound in the cost of cane sugar. Britain was bound to experience imported inflation—a decline in the purchasing power of the national currency caused by a sharp, sustained rise in the price of imported goods.
Thus, Joseph set aside another six million francs for his white-glove grain merchants to head to Ireland and purchase grain at high prices, further driving up the domestic inflation level in Britain.
This money was just a fraction of what he had earned from successfully countering the British short on sugar. He felt no sting in using it to "repay" the British.
In reality, the maximum loss from this venture would be less than one million francs. Since they were actually acquiring wheat, the only risk was a potential price drop later, which would only mean losing the difference.
The success of this grain price attack relied on several rare conditions coming together at once.
First, the French treasury had a surplus of cash.
Second, the Irish landowners had to act in unison; otherwise, if only a small portion of them sold their grain, it would be difficult to create a market storm.
Finally, the rise in grain prices had a minimal impact on the local Irish population—they mostly ate potatoes. The Society of United Irishmen would do its best to lobby the farmers to keep potato prices stable. This was the foundation upon which the Irish landowners were willing to cooperate.
Of course, the eventual rise in grain prices would inevitably lead to a general increase in food costs, which would affect potato prices. However, this was considered the Irish people's contribution to the cause of independence.
In fact, the estates growing grain in Ireland would make a fortune, and the potato farmers would also benefit, offsetting the losses caused by rising food prices in urban areas.
Inflation would severely weaken Britain's war potential, so the small amount of money Joseph invested was essentially a high-yield venture.
"If inflation causes the British public to engage in some 'excessive behavior,' then for France, the profit would be astronomical."
The Society of United Irishmen moved quickly. Just half a month later, over a dozen cargo ships loaded with grain left Dublin Port.
Soon after, merchant ships from the ports of Cork and Dungarvan also began sailing for the European continent.
Simultaneously, the French government issued a decree prohibiting domestic grain from being sold to Britain. France and North Africa were traditionally low-cost grain-producing regions.
By the time the British government finally noticed that the volume of "normal grain trade" in Ireland was becoming excessive more than two months later, the price of wheat in London had already risen to seven shillings and six pence per bushel. As a major metropolis, London's grain prices were always much higher than those in Ireland.
The British public, who had only just calmed down after the sugar prices dropped, quickly discovered that the price of bread was rising again.
Moreover, not long ago, the British government had announced a decree to increase income tax.
Suddenly, signs of unrest began to stir across Britain once more.
...
Central Portugal.
The Marquis of Talavera, supreme commander of the Spanish forces, watched the Anglo-Portuguese allied troops moving back and forth on the Coimbra fortress through his telescope. He turned to his staff officer with a frown of irritation. "Those damned British! They pulled out of Moura, they pulled out of Saboia, but they just won't leave Coimbra!"
Just then, an engineer major walked over, tipped his hat in a salute, and said, "Commander, the pontoon bridge over the middle reaches of the Mondego River has been repaired. However, if we want the heavy cannons to pass, we might have to wait another two days."
The Marquis of Talavera waved his hand dismissively. "You've done well. But for now, it's meaningless."
"Originally, we should have marched south to Alentejo. The British left many towns there unprotected, which is our best opportunity to expand our control."
As he spoke, he glared again at the Coimbra fortress to the west. "But that insidious fellow Wellesley has concentrated all his forces here, right in front of us."
"It keeps my army from going anywhere!"
General Blake.
The engineer major hesitated for a moment before saying, "Commander, are you worried that diverting troops south would give the British an opportunity to counterattack?"
"Yes, exactly. It's quite impressive for an engineer officer like you to have such insight. What was your name again?"
"Blake, Commander. Joaquín Blake y Joyes."
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