2343 Infinite possibilities
“Boyhood vs. The Grand Budapest Hotel”.
“"Boyhood" VS "Birdman"”.
“"Birdman" VS "Explosion Drummer"”.
2014The awards season this year has gone through a long journey with ups and downs and twists and turns. Everyone thought that the Oscars would be a competition between "Boyhood" and "Birdman", but quietly, the second stage has never been at the forefront. The "explosive drummer" who stood up but steadily refused to fall behind completely changed the situation..
It is worth noting that in 2009 the Academy revised the voting rules for Best Picture.
Previously, each academy judge only needed to select one best picture, and one of the five nominated works was selected. This also allowed popular works to often win strongly, such as "Saving Private Ryan" and "Brokeback Mountain". It becomes even more shocking when you encounter an upset.
Since then, each academy judge needs to rank all nominated films from first place to last, and the detailed counting rules have also been changed. If a nominated film gets more than 50% If the support rate is No. 1, then this work will win the best picture..
But what if not? Then the second round of vote counting will take place. Let’s use the eight works on this year’s nomination list to develop assumptions and explain more specifically..
Suppose, in the first round of counting, the work that chooses "Selma March" as the first place has the lowest support rate, then "Selma March" will be eliminated, and those who choose "Selma March" will Treat second place as first place, see if it's "Boyhood" or "Birdman" etc., then recalculate it with the other votes.
This cycle continues until the "first place support rate" of a work exceeds 50%. This is the end, and the best film stands out..
The key to the change in the new rules is that each judge may have a different first place, but the "best" choices for second and third place can hold more weight, which also makes the awards The top seeded contestant in the middle of the season may fail if you are not careful, and there will be an unexpected possibility for the best film..
This year is the best example.
“"Boyhood", "The Grand Budapest Hotel", "Birdman" and "Breaking Drummer", the fierce competition is so fierce that it is difficult to tell who is the first. So, the second place in the vote and The third place will gain more advantages.
For example, the black judges who chose "Selma March" with the first place, what did they think of the second place? After "Selma March" is eliminated, which work will their votes go to?？
For example, for the minority groups who ranked "The Imitation Game" first, which work can win the second or third place on their votes?？
This is the real secret of college public relations. The "number one seed" who leads the field is certainly beautiful, but the second and third seeds that follow cannot be underestimated. As long as they can hold on to the situation, everything is possible. possible.
Two years ago, Ann Lee won Best Director for the second time with "Life of Pi", which was a similar case. Although the voting rules for Best Director are different from those for Best Picture, the rule of choosing one from five is still maintained; The psychology of the judges is very similar. Steven Spielberg in "Lincoln" and Ben Affleck in "Escape from Tehran" fought fiercely. In the end, all the votes went to "third place" An- plum.
Tonight, too.
In the second stage of the awards season, "Boyhood" and "Birdman" are fighting fiercely. The competition is extremely fierce. Especially "Birdman"'s counterattack all the way, which is a real threat to "Boyhood"'s number one The position of the seed, followed closely by the "Exploding Drummer" who is chasing after him, quietly takes the position..
Judging from the distribution of awards so far, "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is all empty-handed in major awards, and "Boyhood" only won one Best Supporting Actress award. Even if there is a possibility of an upset, it is already very slim, and all eyes are on it. It focused on "Explosive Drummer" and "Birdman".
“"Birdman", Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Director.
“"Crackling Drummer", Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Sound Effects.
Whether it is quantity or quality, "Exploding Drummer" is superior; more importantly, the main department and the technical department have blossomed in both directions. In all aspects, "Exploding Drummer" seems to be more "championship-like"”.
A statuette for Best Actor has changed the entire awards ceremony. Not to mention old foxes like the Weinstein brothers, even laymen like Jake Gyllenhaal who have no interest in college public relations are now Can smell subtle changes in the atmosphere and situation.
So, what can stop "Exploding Drummer" from reaching the top at this point? Some clues can be gleaned from the second phase of the college’s public relations：
Tradition.
Ultimately, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is a group of old white men with an average age of over sixty. Their aesthetics and concepts are more sophisticated and traditional, and can even be said to be stubborn..
Back then, they could have refused to watch "Brokeback Mountain" and chosen "Crash" in a blind audition, brewing one of the biggest leftovers in Oscar history; back then, they could have given up on the enterprising "The Social Network" and chosen an even-keeled one. "The King's Speech" is still lamented by countless people..
So, between the current "Birdman" and "Explosive Drummer", they can also give up the latter and choose the former.
“"Explosive Drummer" tells the story of the extreme and madness of pursuing artistic perfection, but it challenges the dominance of traditional authority in every aspect and every corner. In the closing stage of the finale, the transformation is completed in a way of "killing the father", and every minute They are all challenging the conservative bottom line of the academy judges..
And Andrew's madness and darkness in the story are not prepared to please the audience from the beginning, and are constantly stimulating the audience's acceptance. From hurting his family to abandoning his girlfriend, the image of "you can't live without being crazy", Deeply rooted in people's hearts. Even though he achieved perfection at the artistic level, he was not a "good person" at the moral level.”.
But in comparison, the innovation of "Birdman" comes from camera scheduling and rhythm control. Although it is bold but acceptable, the core of the story is still Hollywood's favorite: an artist who has hit rock bottom refuses to surrender, and is constantly looking for a career. The transformation of your career, even if you are abandoned, you still continue to struggle. That indomitable spirit is what the judges of the traditional academy love most. "Although I can't see you and the industry has abandoned you, you still deeply love this industry.".”
Michael Keaton's counterpart to Batman as Birdman breaks the boundary between reality and fantasy, allowing the subtle interaction between movies and plays to show another level of artistic creation, virtuality, reality, and reality. Fakeness comes from life but is higher than life. Who can refuse it?？
Tradition - or conservatism, this is the biggest constraint that restricts "Explosive Drummer" from defeating "Birdman".
But... Renly Hall came back to defeat Eddie Medrain and Michael Keaton, and won two Oscars. This has also become the biggest variable in tonight's awards ceremony..
No one is sure how many of the judges who selected "Best Actor" also selected "Bangkook" for Best Picture; or in other words, how many of the judges selected "Boyhood" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel" After winning first place for Best Picture, "Cruel" was chosen as second and third place.
uncertain.
have no idea.
Unpredictable.
After the suspenseful Best Actor at the 87th Academy Awards was announced, the Best Picture, which was originally lacking in novelty and unwatchable, suddenly became exciting..
When Renly and Kate left the stage hand in hand, all the guests gradually came to their senses, and then their emotions became subtle and strange..
The positions of the Weinstein brothers are reversed..
Bob is there and has a peaceful mind. No matter who wins the Oscar, he can accept it calmly. If "Explosive Drummer" really makes a counterattack and wins the Oscar, he doesn't think it is the end of the world. On the contrary, he can give it a good It would be great if Wei teaches Harvey a lesson and wakes him up..
Of course, watching Harvey deflate is another kind of enjoyment..
Harvey, on the other hand, seemed a little dissociated. His uncertain expression made it difficult to tell what he was thinking about, but the mixed emotions made him lose his normal mind..
So much so that I started to doubt myself.
Was his strategy wrong? One wrong step, one wrong step after another, and then everything will be lost.？
No！
impossible！
How could he go wrong? How could he be confused? Absolutely impossible！
So, what exactly caused the current situation? Could it be...a traitor? There was an insider inside the Weinstein Films, which caused them to fail to receive the news in time and make wrong judgments about the format of the awards season, which ultimately led to a series of accidents at the awards ceremony.——
First "The Imitation Game" missed out on the adapted script, then "The Theory of Everything" missed out on the leading actor……
Yes! That must be the case！
Harvey's eyes drifted towards Bob from the corner of his eye, and the mixed thoughts in his mind were surging, so much so that he completely ignored Neil Patrick Harris who walked on the stage. The award ceremony seemed to have nothing to do with it..
Harvey was probably the only guest in the audience who was distracted. All the other audience's eyes fell on Neil. This was his last appearance tonight..
“Now with one last award yet to be announced, the much-anticipated envelope is about to be opened: my 'Oscar prediction'’！”
Neil's speech made all the guests chuckle: It turns out that the magic in the first half is actually going to last throughout the whole game. Is it waiting to be revealed now?？
“As a brief introduction, on Thursday, I handed over my prediction results to PricewaterhouseCoopers, and they promised that they would help me guard my predictions until the truth is revealed. Now, the truth is here. Brian Curry Brain-Cullinan, where's the key?？”
Neil got the key from Brian at PwC.
At this time, Renly was finally "released" by the reporters and returned to the waiting room, but it was too late to return to his seat, so he was waiting for the final result in the waiting room. When he saw Brian Cullinan appearing on the stage , the smile couldn't help but rise - it was him, this guy, the guy who created the mismatch between "La La Land" and "Moonlight" on this stage two years later..
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