1931 Waiting for a slap in the face
“Warner Bros. has never been worried about the popularity of "Interstellar". Even if it is scheduled to be released for half a year, even if the time is rushed, relying on the strong appeal of the cast, these are not problems..
Sure enough, after the movie premiere, from the media to the audience, from traditional newspapers and magazines to emerging social networks, "Interstellar" began to flood the screen, and the discussion heated up to the sky. Although it was temporarily unable to compete with "Captain America" 2" has been brewing for more than eighteen months, but it still has a firm foothold in the summer release..
Now let’s look at the conversion rate between discussion popularity and box office data. Judging from the market appeal of Renly and Nolan, the final total box office number is worth looking forward to.
However, as mentioned before, due to the feedback from internal test screenings and the decision to temporarily increase the release date, Warner Bros. and industry insiders, including Warner Bros., have relatively conservative estimates of the premiere box office. Refer to the "Inception" Judging from the box office curve, "Interstellar" should also rely more on long-term box office continuity rather than the explosion of the opening weekend..
Warner Bros.'s caution can be seen from the arrangement of the number of theaters..
“"Godzilla", with 3,952 theaters.
“"Interstellar", with 3,592 theaters.
The difference in the number of screening theaters between the two works is a full 360. The number of venues for "Interstellar" is even less than that of "The Lego Movie" and "300" released earlier this year. In 2014 Among Warner Bros.'s theatrical releases throughout the year, "Interstellar" only ranked eighth in terms of theatrical release size, basically the same as the comedy movie "Tammy".
The arrangement of the number of theaters for public screenings undoubtedly has distinctive characteristics: for family-friendly animated movies, there are often more than 4,000; for summer heavyweight popcorn movies, around 3,800 is the common standard; for horror movies, there are It is less than 3,000 rooms, and it is also common to have less than 2,000 rooms..
Now, there are only 3,592 "Interstellar" franchises, which is less than a hundred more than "Tammy". This is why after the movie was confirmed to be released, major news media generally suspected that this work might become a This is one of the important reasons for abandoning the son. Even if the son is not abandoned, it also shows that Warner Brothers lacks confidence..
Looking at the horizontal comparison, this was the case for "Edge of Tomorrow" two years ago, with about 3,500 screening venues; also as a reference, the number of theater venues for "Inception" was 3,790 Two families.
It can be seen that the number of venues in the above three works is lower than the average level of summer commercial works. From a purely data perspective, the difference is only between two hundred and three hundred. The possible difference is in the central region In some small towns, the impact on box office is minimal - but, who knows? Who can be 100% sure?？
The only thing that can be explained is that Warner Bros.’s market forecast for science fiction movies is still slightly conservative. Even after the outstanding results of “Edge of Tomorrow” and “Inception”, the publicity department’s box office data for “Interstellar” The forecast is still slightly conservative. This mentality is also reflected in Warner Bros.'s official box office forecast numbers..
$65 million！
It's not 100 million US dollars, nor 80 million US dollars, but only 65 million US dollars. Such an ultra-low figure also shocked all netizens and viewers..
But in fact, industry insiders believe that this is a very appropriate number.
Although "Edge of Tomorrow" once achieved a miracle of 138 million in its opening weekend box office in the same period two years ago, becoming the 22nd film in film history to have a box office of more than 100 million in its opening weekend; But don’t forget about “Inception””.
At that time, Nolan summoned Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ellen Page, Marion Cotillard and other actors to form a team comparable to the "Avengers". Alliance's Starlight Cast produced this work. Under the cover of a media review of 74 points, everyone believed that this film had all the elements to detonate the market, and it can be said that it has attracted much attention..
The final box office of "Inception" was 62 million.
Of course, "Inception" still relied on its strong reputation to sweep the box office data of 290 million US dollars in North America, and its performance in overseas markets is even more impressive; but the objective fact is that this kind of brain-burning science fiction movie did not premiere at the premiere The weekend indeed lacked explosive power. It is more necessary to use the stamina after word-of-mouth spread to complete the box office breakthrough..
“"Interstellar" can be compared with "Inception" in all aspects, so Warner Bros. gave a premiere box office forecast of 65 million, which is slightly conservative but has no success..
Box office forecasts from relevant professional media also expressed support for Warner Bros..
“The Chicago Sun-Times' box office forecast was the highest bidder among previous first-round estimates: $80 million..
“The Nolan of today is not the Nolan of 2010, and similarly, the Hall of today is not the Hall of 2012. These two top filmmakers in the Hollywood pyramid have proven themselves through one work after another. When Lang and Hall teamed up in 2014, the sparks that sparked between them were undoubtedly explosive in the market..”
They mentioned one very important thing: when "Edge of Tomorrow" came out, even though "Crazy Love" and "Fast & Furious 5" had already done well at the box office, Renly was a As a "summer newbie" who has never taken the leading role, no one can be sure whether the audience will go to the cinema for the name "Renly Hall" after switching from art films to commercial films; but now the situation has changed dramatically. , the excellent box office performance of the two works "Gravity" and "Drunken Country Ballad" is the best proof.
There's no reason, then, for "Interstellar" to be an exception.
“Rolling Stone's box office forecast was the lowest in the first round: $25 million..
The printing was not wrong, the magazine forecast was not wrong, this is the correct number, obviously they did not miss a zero.
“What everyone overlooks is the fact that when '2001: A Space Odyssey' and 'Blade Runner' premiered, they didn't get the treatment they deserved - 'Blade Runner' was even denounced as a A super bad movie, and the box office performance of both works was very bad. This also proves that classic science fiction movies that transcend the times often cannot adapt to contemporary aesthetic needs..
’The success of "Inception" comes from the construction of fantasy based on human real life, and in the environment of "Interstellar" leaving the earth and entering space, can the "brain-burning plot" presented by Nolan still be accepted by the general audience? And since "Gravity" has just produced the best space scene in film history, it will be extremely difficult for this film to make a comeback in the summer season..”
From the vague feedback from internal test screenings, to the temporary release for half a year, to the absence of Renly during the promotion stage... "Rolling Stone" believes that there is a sense of uneasiness in all aspects - maybe "Interstellar" can still be completed based on word of mouth. However, it is difficult to break the shackles of the entire current era during the opening weekend: This is an era where wine is not as good as the alley. Even Marvel movies cannot guarantee that every work will be successful at the box office. , then why can Nolan and Renly's signatures be said to be "the final word"?？
“The views of "Chicago Sun" and "Rolling Stone" are both reasonable, and the forecast data of other media can also be referred to.：
“New York Times", 55 million.
“Los Angeles Times, 40 million.
“The Hollywood Reporter," 60 million.
“Variety Show", 60 million.
“Empire”, 50 million.
The forecast data from mainstream authoritative media are all concentrated between 40 million and 60 million. Overall, it is relatively average, neither too high nor too low. It is basically consistent with the official prediction of Warner Bros.; so The curve patterns of feedback and media reviews are also somewhat similar - the main opinions are all concentrated in the middle area, neither up nor down, ambiguous, lacking a fierce confrontation between love and hate. It seems that everyone is trying to find a more suitable and accurate one. method to comment on this work, but it cannot be determined in a short time.
Then, that's it.
In fact, people in the industry are looking forward to the emergence of a hit work more than anyone else - since the opening of the summer season in 2014, no work has yet exceeded the 100 million box office threshold in its opening weekend, which is really disappointing. All the highly anticipated works unfortunately lacked explosive power, which also made the summer movie a little dull..
So far, the film with the best box office performance during its opening weekend in the summer is still "Captain America 2", with 95 million, so close yet so far away from the 100 million threshold..
In addition, there are three works with a box office of more than 90 million at the premiere, closely behind "Captain America 2" - "Godzilla", "The Amazing Spider-Man 2", and "X-Men: "Days of Future Past", but the premiere numbers of the three works were all between 90 million and 93 million, and they failed to achieve a breakthrough..
Now everyone is discussing: Is there any film this year that can exceed the 100 million threshold in its opening weekend box office? If "Interstellar" fails to live up to expectations, and "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Transformers 4" seem to be missing a bit of a title shot, should they look forward to "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles"?？
“After the official debut of "Interstellar", the word-of-mouth feedback from all aspects has been impressive, which has also caused the major news media to slightly increase their expectations - perhaps, they underestimated this work; perhaps, Nolan and Renly's chemistry can still spark market excitement after all; perhaps, they can look forward to unexpected surprises？
Like Warner Bros., industry insiders are also waiting for the emergence of dark horses, otherwise such a lifeless summer schedule will really be no fun at all..
Can this be considered...expecting to be slapped in the face?？
However, judging from the popcorn index, theater scores and other data, "Interstellar" is more likely to be like the second "Inception" than the second "Edge of Tomorrow"”.
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